Blackjack odds, by the numbers. Every rule, every cost.
Blackjack is the best-EV game on the floor, but only when the rules cooperate. Here's exactly what every rule costs you, how to compare tables, and what your expected hourly loss really looks like.
Played perfectly, blackjack is ~0.5%. The best game in the casino.
A standard six-deck shoe with player-friendly rules (S17, 3:2, DAS, late surrender, full splits) gives the house an edge of about 0.46%. Play perfect basic strategy and that number is what you'll lose per dollar wagered over the long run. For comparison: roulette is ~2.7%, craps pass-line is ~1.4%, slots are 5–15%.
Every rule modifier shifts that baseline up or down. The table below is the per-rule cost or saving against the 0.46% baseline.
What each rule costs (or saves).
| Rule | Δ vs. baseline | Note |
|---|---|---|
| 6:5 blackjack payout | +1.39% | Single biggest house-favouring rule. Avoid. |
| Dealer hits soft 17 (H17) | +0.22% | Common at lower-stakes tables. |
| No double after split (no DAS) | +0.14% | Changes a handful of pair-split cells too. |
| Double on 10–11 only | +0.21% | Removes the 8/9 doubles vs. weak upcards. |
| Double on 9–11 only | +0.09% | Less common restriction. |
| No double at all | +0.48% | Almost never seen. Usually a tell. |
| No surrender | +0.07% | Small but real. Late surrender is the standard variant. |
| Early surrender allowed | −0.62% | Player surrenders before dealer peek. Rare. |
| Resplit aces allowed (RSA) | −0.07% | Standard is one card per split ace, no resplits. |
| Hit split aces | −0.18% | Very rare. Hugely player-favourable when offered. |
| Single deck (vs. 6) | −0.48% | But often paired with 6:5. Check the felt. |
| Two decks (vs. 6) | −0.19% | Sweet spot when offered with 3:2. |
| Eight decks (vs. 6) | +0.02% | Negligible vs. 6 decks. |
| Continuous shuffle machine (CSM) | −0.02% | Slight player benefit, but kills counting. |
All figures vs. the 6-deck S17 / 3:2 / DAS / late surrender baseline. Deltas add up roughly linearly for combined rule changes.
Build your house edge.
Set your table's rules below. The calculator sums the deltas above to estimate the resulting house edge.
Estimates only. The exact edge depends on rule interactions and penetration that this calculator doesn't model. Use it to compare tables, not to size your retirement plan.
What $10 wins, by outcome.
| Outcome | Example | $10 wager |
|---|---|---|
| Win | Beat dealer with 18 vs. 17 | +$10 |
| Blackjack · 3:2 | A,K on first two cards | +$15 |
| Blackjack · 6:5 | A,K on first two cards | +$12 |
| Win on a double | Doubled 11, drew a 10 | +$20 |
| Push | Tie at 19 vs. 19 | $0 |
| Insurance win | Dealer turned blackjack | +$10 (on $5 side bet) |
| Late surrender | Folded a 16 vs. 10 | −$5 |
| Loss | Stood 17, dealer made 20 | −$10 |
| Bust | Drew to 22 | −$10 |
The 3:2 vs 6:5 line is the single biggest swing on this page. Always check the felt before sitting down. A 6:5 single-deck game has a worse house edge than a 6-deck 3:2 game, despite looking attractive.
What the edge means in dollars per hour.
At an average of 80 hands per hour playing $25 a hand, your expected hourly loss is:
- 0.46% (good rules): −$9.20 / hour
- 0.50% (H17, otherwise good): −$10.00 / hour
- 1.85% (6:5 single deck): −$37.00 / hour
- 2.00%+ (you ignore the chart): pick a number
A counter operating at +0.5% to +1.5% over the house at the same volume earns $10–30 per hour. That's the entire game: small edges, lots of hands, brutal variance.
Numbers don't play themselves.
Set your real table's rules in the trainer and drill against the exact conditions you'll sit down to.